THE US wants the world's scientists to develop technology to block sunlight as a last-ditch way to halt global warming.
It
says research into techniques such as giant mirrors in space or
reflective dust pumped into the atmosphere would be "important
insurance" against rising emissions, and has lobbied for such a
strategy to be recommended by a UN report on climate change, the first
part of which is due out on Friday).
The US has also attempted to
steer the UN report, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), away from conclusions that would support a new worldwide
climate treaty based on binding targets to reduce emissions. It has
demanded a draft of the report be changed to emphasise the benefits of
voluntary agreements and to include criticisms of the Kyoto Protocol,
which the US opposes.
The final report, written by experts from
across the world, will underpin international negotiations to devise an
emissions treaty to succeed Kyoto, the first phase of which expires in
2012. World governments were given a draft of the report last year and
invited to comment.
The US response says the idea of interfering
with sunlight should be included in the summary for policymakers, the
prominent chapter at the front of each panel report. It says:
"Modifying solar radiance may be an important strategy if mitigation of
emissions fails. Doing the R&D to estimate the consequences of
applying such a strategy is important insurance that should be taken
out. This is a very important possibility that should be considered."
Scientists
have previously estimated that reflecting less than 1 per cent of
sunlight back into space could compensate for the warming generated by
all greenhouse gases emitted since the industrial revolution. Possible
techniques include putting a giant screen into orbit, thousands of
tiny, shiny balloons, or microscopic sulfate droplets pumped into the
high atmosphere to mimic the cooling effects of a volcanic eruption.
The IPCC draft said such ideas were "speculative, uncosted and with
potential unknown side-effects".
The US submission complains the
draft report is "Kyoto-centric" and it wants to include the work of
economists who have reported "the degree to which the Kyoto framework
is found wanting".
It also complains that overall "the report
tends to overstate or focus on the negative effects of climate change".
It also wants more emphasis on responsibilities of the developing world.
But
Professor Stephen Schneider, a climate consultant to the US government
for more than 30 years and a key figure in the panel process for more
than a decade, says the world is "playing Russian roulette" with its
future by responding too slowly to climate change.
The panel's
draft report shows projections for average global temperature rise from
1990 to 2100 will expand slightly, with a new range of one to 6.3
degrees. The 2001 report's range was 1.4 to 5.8 degrees.
Professor
Schneider said he was concerned the increase was more likely to be
three degrees or higher, with a 10 per cent chance of a six-degree rise
by the end of the century.
"Hell, we buy fire insurance based on
a 1 per cent chance," he said. "If we're going to be risk averse … we
cannot dismiss the possibility of potentially catastrophic outliers and
that includes Greenland and West Antarctica [ice sheets breaking up],
massive species extinctions, intensified hurricanes and all those
things. "There's at least a 10 per cent chance of that. And that to me
for a society is too high a risk … My value judgement when you're
talking about planetary life support systems is that 10 per cent, my
God, that's Russian roulette with a Luger."
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Seriously, WTF
